On December 18, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order directing the DEA to begin the process of rescheduling cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III. It was the most significant federal cannabis policy shift in decades. Advocates celebrated. The cannabis industry breathed a collective sigh of relief.
That was nearly four months ago. Nothing has happened.
Where It’s Stuck
The rescheduling process requires a formal rulemaking procedure overseen by a DEA Administrative Law Judge (ALJ). Here’s the problem: the DEA doesn’t currently have one. The position is vacant, and there’s been no public indication of when it will be filled.
Without an ALJ, the rulemaking process can’t begin. Without rulemaking, there’s no hearing. Without a hearing, there’s no schedule change. The executive order sits in bureaucratic limbo — technically active, practically frozen.
Even Trump ally Roger Stone has publicly asked the question: “Who is holding up the President’s order?” It’s a fair question. When a sitting president issues a directive and the machinery of government simply… doesn’t move… someone is making that choice.
What Schedule III Actually Means
This isn’t just symbolic. Moving cannabis to Schedule III would trigger massive, concrete changes:
Tax relief under Section 280E. Right now, cannabis businesses can’t deduct normal business expenses on their federal taxes because of a provision designed to punish drug traffickers. Schedule III would eliminate that burden — saving the legal cannabis industry an estimated $1.6 to $2.2 billion annually, according to Cannabis Business Times analysis.
Research access. Schedule I classification makes it extraordinarily difficult for researchers to study cannabis. Moving to Schedule III would open the floodgates for clinical trials, university research, and proper medical studies.
A prescription pathway. Schedule III substances can be prescribed by doctors and dispensed by pharmacies. This could eventually integrate cannabis into the mainstream medical system.
For context, cannabis currently sits on Schedule I alongside heroin. Schedule III includes ketamine, testosterone, and Tylenol with codeine. The idea that cannabis is more dangerous than ketamine isn’t just wrong — it’s laughable. But it’s been federal law for over 50 years.
The $18.5 Billion Answer
The U.S. legal cannabis market hit an estimated $30.5 billion in 2026. That’s real money — and it’s coming directly out of the pockets of industries that have spent decades profiting from prohibition.
Research published in PLOS ONE found that full cannabis legalization would reduce pharmaceutical sales by approximately 11%. Applied to the roughly $168 billion U.S. prescription drug market for relevant categories, that’s an $18.5 billion annual hit to Big Pharma’s bottom line.
That number tells you everything you need to know about why rescheduling is stalled.
Who’s Blocking It
You don’t have to guess. The money trail is public record.
Pharmaceutical companies have spent over $6.1 billion on federal lobbying since 1999, according to OpenSecrets. They are the single largest lobbying force in Washington, outspending even the defense industry. Every dollar of that spending protects a regulatory framework that treats cannabis — a plant that has never caused a fatal overdose — as equivalent to heroin.
Private prison corporations spend nearly $970,000 per year lobbying against cannabis reform, per OpenSecrets data. Drug offenses fill their beds. Cannabis convictions are reliable revenue. CoreCivic and GEO Group have both been documented lobbying against legalization efforts at the state and federal level.
Alcohol distributors have poured millions into opposing cannabis ballot measures. The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America and individual beer distributors have funded anti-legalization campaigns in multiple states. They know what the data shows: in states with legal cannabis, alcohol sales decline.
These aren’t conspiracy theories. These are SEC filings, FEC records, and lobbying disclosures. The information is public. The pattern is undeniable.
Still Shattering Lives
While the rescheduling order gathers dust, the drug war — the longest-running war in American history — continues to shatter lives. People are still being arrested for cannabis in states where it remains illegal. People with prior convictions still can’t get jobs, housing, or federal student loans. The communities hit hardest by prohibition — overwhelmingly Black and Latino communities, despite equal usage rates across races — are still waiting for the justice they were promised.
The president signed the order. The science supports rescheduling. The economics demand it. The public wants it — over 70% of Americans support legalization, according to Gallup.
So who’s holding it up? Follow the money. Pharma, private prisons, and alcohol distributors all profit from the status quo. They have the lobbyists, the lawyers, and the access. And right now, they’re winning.
The $18.5 billion question isn’t whether cannabis should be rescheduled. It’s how long the industries profiting from prohibition can keep stalling the inevitable.
Sources
- Marijuana Moment — Trump Signs Executive Order on Marijuana Rescheduling
- NPR — Federal Marijuana Reclassification Efforts
- Cannabis Business Times — 280E Tax Impact on Cannabis Industry
- PLOS ONE — Cannabis Legalization and Pharmaceutical Sales Impact
- OpenSecrets — Industry Lobbying Data
- OpenSecrets — Private Prison Lobbying
- Leafly — Tracking Cannabis Rescheduling
- Gallup — Support for Legalizing Marijuana